[This post updated 6-7-05 with additional information and citations]
Yes, it’s true. Sometime in 2007, you will likely be able to install OS-X 10.5 on your crappy-ass Dell.
Apple is losing the big competitive difference they once had. Instead, they’re becoming one of the pack. Apple’s sales may go up, but what made us love Apple will go down precipitously. And ultimately, that could hurt Apple. The “Mac” as you know it will be no more.
You thought my opening line was a scare tactic, but just wait until they hack OS-X to run on any WinTel machine. Dells could, in theory, be running OS-X. Fucking wonderful. You can keep it.
I read this somewhere in the past week on-line, but I don’t remember where or I’d cite the reference: Apple lost approximately 40% of their developers went they went from the 68000 platform to the PowerPC. They lost nearly 60% of their developers when they went from OS-9 to OS-X. So, out of 1,000** developers they lost 400 (40% of 1000) in the first big change leaving 600. Of the remaining 600 they lost 360 (60% of 600). That leaves 240 out of every 1000, or just 24% — that’s a 76% defection rate. Who, exactly, is going to WRITE software for OS-X 10.5*?
Another statistic: From the front page of the 6-7-05 Miami Herald business section: in the 1980s, Apple had just over 10% of the computer market share. When Apple switched to the PowerPC from the 68000, they dropped to 5% market share. That’s a 50% drop in market share. When Apple switched from OS-9 to OS-X they dropped to 3% market share. A drop of 40% more. The Apple faithful stand behind Apple, but the real world runs away.
So guess what the trend is telling us? Apple and their lemming-like users are living in a fantasy world. I used to be one of this group, but as of today, I am not.
Apple is slowly killing itself. It will cease to be a computer maker one day — probably sooner than later. It’s going to be the iPod company. That’s all great except that Apple Music is likely to win its lawsuit against Apple Computer. For those keeping tabs, Apple Computer in the 1980s settled out of court with Apple Music enjoining them from making computing devices with music capability (it started with the Ensoniq chip in the Apple IIgs) in perpetuity. Pretty much everyone who has read the actual agreement agrees: Apple Computer has no case. If they can’t settle, Apple Computer is going to lose and lose in a huge way which will result in the closure of the company.
I fail to see why Apple jumped on the WinTel chipset when they did everything in their power to destroy clones. Now, they’ve virtually guaranteed the Return of the Clones — a process which they will not be able to reverse this time. They’ve forsaken proprietary architecture for popular architecture. It will drive down prices, but with it will go legendary quality. The nice things about Macs is they don’t crash. Welcome to the world of PCs where mediocrity is an acceptable state of being.
Worse, you can bet your sweet little ass, you will see a version on Windows for your Mac/WinTel machine. And the only way you can run future version of Microsoft Office for the “Mac” will be on that version of Windows.
A few of my Mac friends seem to think this is a good idea, but I’m assuming they were heavily medicated because I can’t come up with any sane, rational reason why this would be a good thing. When Apple releases their last PowerPC system, buy one. It’s going to be the last real
Macintosh you ever own.
*or whatever you’re going to call it
** My percentages are basically accurate, although I don’t know the exact number of developers they started with — just replace the number 1000 with the correct number ….